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The number of cancer deaths worldwide is expected to nearly double by 2050, largely due to increases in low and middle-income countries.

at the University of Queensland in Australia and his team made the discovery by looking at recent figures for cases and death rates for 36 types of cancer in 185 countries from the Global Cancer Observatory database. They then projected future cases and deaths by applying these rates to the 2050 population predictions from the United Nations Development Programme.

They found that the total number of cancer cases worldwide is expected to grow by nearly 77 per cent between 2022 and 2050, which would mean an additional 15.3 million cases in 2050 on top of the 20 million in 2022. Global cancer deaths are also projected to rise by almost 90 per cent during this period, resulting in 8.8 million more in 2050 compared with 2022, in which 9.7 million people died from the disease.

The largest increases are expected in countries with low or middle rankings on the UN’s Human Development Index, which is based on average life expectancy, education level and income per person. Cancer cases and deaths are, on average, anticipated to nearly triple by 2050 in countries with a low score, such as Niger and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, countries with a very high score – such as Norway – are projected to see cases and deaths increase, on average, by more than 42 per cent and 56 per cent, respectively.

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This reinforces other evidence that shows cancer cases are trending upwards, says at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, who wasn’t involved with the study. Multiple factors are probably driving this, including people living longer, which raises the risk of cancer, he says. However, the work didn’t account for the advent of new or more effective treatments.

Less-developed countries will probably see the greatest increases due to the “so-called Westernisation of populations”, says Chan. “Some of the habits that we traditionally associate with higher risk of cancer, such as rising rates of obesity and poor diet, are becoming a trend in low and middle-income countries.”