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Space

There’s a tiny chance the asteroid headed for Earth could hit the moon

If asteroid 2024 YR4 does smash down on the lunar surface, the explosion might be visible from Earth and would leave a new crater on the near side of the moon

By Robin George Andrews

10 February 2025

Artist’s impression of an asteroid nearing the moon

NASA/JPL-Caltech

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is on a potential crash course with Earth, but there’s a very slight chance the moon could take the hit.

Based on current observations, there is a 2.1 per cent chance that the asteroid – about as long as the Leaning Tower of Pisa is tall – will crash into our planet on 22 December 2032. Although it is very likely to miss, a direct strike on a populated area would be catastrophic. But if it is in fact heading directly our way, new calculations show that there…

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